Key points as Arizona lands Carson Palmer
Mike Sando
What comes to mind after the Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals agreed on a trade sending Carson Palmer to Arizona:
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Back with more in a bit. I've revived Palmer-related charts that ran recently. The one below shows stats following the major injuries Palmer has suffered.
[h=4]Carson Palmer Career Stats as Starter by Health[/h]
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Mike Sando
What comes to mind after the Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals agreed on a trade sending Carson Palmer to Arizona:
- The price: The Cardinals are sending a 2013 sixth-round pick (176th overall) and a 2014 seventh-rounder (conditional on Palmer starting at least 13 games, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter) for Palmer and the Raiders' seventh-round pick (219th overall) in 2013. Palmer has started at least 13 games in three of the past four seasons and seven times since first becoming a starter in 2004. The price in draft-choice compensation was so low because the Cardinals knew Oakland would release Palmer in the absence of a trade. General manager Steve Keim and the Cardinals' front office deserve credit for getting a starting quarterback without giving up too much. Sometimes a team acts hastily in the presence of great need, particularly when there's a powerful head coach involved. That arguably happened to an extent with the Kansas City Chiefs when they acquired Alex Smith for a second-round choice. Smith might be more appealing than Palmer, but is he that much more appealing?
| QB | Palmer | Cards |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 41 | 48 |
| W-L | 12-28 | 18-30 |
| Pct. | .300 | .375 |
| Drop backs | 1,558 | 1,924 |
| Comp. | 906 | 929 |
| Att. | 1,479 | 1,719 |
| Comp. pct. | 61.3 | 54.0 |
| Yards | 10,741 | 9,493 |
| YPA | 7.3 | 6.2 |
| Pass TD | 61 | 42 |
| INT | 50 | 63 |
| NFL rating | 83.1 | 65.7 |
| Sacked | 69 | 162 |
| Sack pct. | 4.4 | 8.4 |
| Total QBR | 48.1 | 26.8 |
| Source: ESPN Stats & Information |
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- The salary: We'll revisit initial reports on financial compensation once the numbers can be verified and put into context. Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says Palmer will get $16 million over two years, with $10 million guaranteed. That makes Palmer the obvious starter. And with backup Drew Stanton having received some guaranteed money as well, he becomes the clear No. 2.
- The protection: Cardinals quarterbacks took a league-high 58 sacks last season. The team's new coach, Bruce Arians, favors a downfield passing attack. Arians' quarterback in Indianapolis last season, Andrew Luck, was put under duress and/or hit before throwing a league-high number of times, according to ESPN Stats & Information. What does this mean for the immobile, 33-year-old Palmer? Not as much as those numbers suggest. Palmer ranked seventh among qualifying quarterbacks last season in sacks per drop back. He was at 4.4 percent, below the 5.9 percent average for 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan were ahead of Palmer in this category. Offensive lines deserve some blame for sacks, but quarterbacks play a huge role in them. Mobility isn't the key variable, either. Palmer gets the ball out.
- The INTs: Palmer throws interceptions at a high rate. Perhaps he'd be better off taking a few more sacks. Palmer ranks 25th among 29 qualifying quarterbacks over the past three seasons in touchdown-to-interception ratio. Palmer is at 1.22 in this category, ahead of only Mark Sanchez (1.14), Colt McCoy (1.05), Matt Hasselbeck (1.03) and Chad Henne (0.88).
- The impact: Palmer has been an average quarterback in recent seasons as measured by Total QBR. I would expect the Cardinals to win a few more games as a result, perhaps getting into the 8-8 range, all else equal. Arizona posted a 5-11 record last season, but that was misleading. The Cardinals went 1-11 over their final 12 games. The quarterbacking was horrendous. Ryan Lindley, John Skelton and Sanchez were the only quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts to finish with a negative number in points above replacement. That suggests they were not just below average, but also worse than replacement-level players. Palmer finished the season at plus-44.7 in this category. That was 23rd in the NFL out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts -- not great, but so much better than Lindley or Skelton.
Back with more in a bit. I've revived Palmer-related charts that ran recently. The one below shows stats following the major injuries Palmer has suffered.
[h=4]Carson Palmer Career Stats as Starter by Health[/h]
| Starts | 1-29 | 30-65 | 66-121 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Years | 2004-2005 | 2006-2008 | 2009-2012 |
| Major injury rehab | None | Knee | Elbow |
| W-L | 17-12 | 15-21 | 22-34 |
| Drop backs | 985 | 1,290 | 2,041 |
| Yards/drop back | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Comp. | 608 | 772 | 1,180 |
| Att. | 941 | 1,224 | 1,924 |
| Yards | 6,733 | 8,897 | 13,719 |
| Yards/att. | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| TD-INT | 50-30 | 57-37 | 82-60 |
| NFL rating | 90.2 | 87.9 | 84.1 |
| Sacked | 44 | 64 | 95 |
| Sack percent | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Total QBR | N/A | N/A | 49.9 |
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